从80后的结构性苦逼，看孩子未来的教育趋势
<div style="text-align: center;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"></font></div><p></p><div><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 我们是生不逢时的一代？<br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 还是每代都有各自的悲哀？</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 孩子我们拿什么来爱？</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><section data-id="120" class="e7editor" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section class="e7wei" data-id="85802" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-width="50%" style="margin-top: 2em; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 240px; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); color: rgb(166, 166, 166);"><section style="margin-top: -1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; line-height: 1em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="padding: 4px 8px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(172, 29, 16); height: 18px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(172, 29, 16) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">前 言</font></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 有个词叫“大势所趋”。男生比较喜欢这类滚滚长江豪情壮志的词，但是你做为一个女森，是不是作无感状？</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 之前DrBing文章说过很多次，在孩子的教育投资长线规划中，最终要的一点是要看清国情的结构性变化，把握大势，顺势而为，避免踩坑。所以啊，<span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">今天DrBing带着你，通过分析80后苦逼一代，了解国家发展的结构化趋势，并且展望我们的下一代的时代结构如何，我们怎样做才能顺大势。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 根据年初《新周刊》的“中国80后生存现状调查”的采样：</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 八成80后，月薪未过1万元，</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 八成80后，存款不足10万元，</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 十个80后，四个房奴，三个车奴，还有三个啃老族，</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 仅22%成为奶爸妈，20%的人是剩女，19%的人是剩男，18%丁克</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 有娃，如果还有房有车有存款的你，感受一下自己是何等的幸福。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> </font></span></p><section data-id="120" class="e7editor" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section class="e7wei" data-id="85802" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-width="50%" style="margin-top: 2em; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 240px; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); color: rgb(166, 166, 166);"><section style="margin-top: -1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; line-height: 1em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="padding: 4px 8px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(172, 29, 16); height: 18px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(172, 29, 16) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">回 望 过 去</font></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 为什么80后这么苦逼呢？</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 网上流传一个段子：</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 50后：基本穷逼，晃悠着；</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 60后，政治年代，多数当官了；</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 70后，赶上改革开放吹满地，发了；</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 80后，多数50后穷逼的子女，苦逼了；</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 90后和00后：60后和70后的子女，除了富二代就是官二代。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 环环相扣的，可见，苦逼80后的出现不是无缘无故的。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 无论是“坚守还是逃离大城市”、“纠结的80后买房难”的媒体论战，主角都是80后的年轻群体。如果我们梳理一下80后面临的诸多困顿，会发现其实80后纠结的问题都被打上了深刻的时代烙印，什么好处都没摊上，什么坑都一脚踩上了。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 这种因为国家的结构性变化而产生的苦逼，叫做<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">结构性苦逼</span></strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 好的童鞋们，现在看看80后的机构性苦逼是怎么来的。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1.父母穷逼</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">80后的父母基本都是5、60左右的人，有知青有工人有农民，没受过良好的教育的基数大。改革开放物质上有了真正的发展是在90年代中期，这个时候80后的父母基本都在35岁左右，人生已经开始初步定型，而社会却正在急速转型之中，而他们中的绝大部分正处在茫然无知的状态下，有胆子大些不安分的人自己开始做生意了，这毕竟是少数。安分守己墨守成规的好公民基本都成了今天的下岗工人或是没文化的低层次劳动者。而他们的子女，也就是我们80后这一代。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2. 童年苦逼</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">80后的选择并不如今天的学生丰富，读书+高考在当时几乎是唯一的出路，这让我们80后的学生生涯异常难熬，念书念得非常辛苦。我们在父母的庇护下接受应试教育。高二、高三（02、03年），简直就是应试教育发挥到极致的时期了。那时候多流行啊，小考、大考、月考、期中考、期末考；补课、晚自习、家长会……这些字眼，就算是现在回忆起来，仍旧觉得噩梦！</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">3. 扩招毁学历</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">当80后好不容易进入大学，又刚好赶上2000年后的“教改”，大学疯狂扩招，高等教育成为圈钱工具。从1999年至2005年大学扩招人数每年递增25％左右，到了2009，10年时间大学生入学人数增加13倍，这使得80后几乎人人都名义上成了大学生，但也意味着他们一毕业，起薪比技工都低。父母也为了孩子上学掏空了积蓄，80后是第一批面临高等教育文凭急剧贬值的一代。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">4. </span>消费物质至上</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">90年代，外国的品牌涌进入中国，电视广告的泛滥，80后在整个90年代都处于世界观启蒙的懵懂少年的状态，这让他们很难在商品市场中表示“淡定”，做到无欲无求，淡泊名利。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">成就了马云的剁手族就是这批人。花钱太狠不是罪，罪是：</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">5. </span><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">会花不会赚</span></span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">80后衣食无忧，在教育选择不多，父母观念保守的情况下，我们唯一的任务就是学习，多数人不懂赚钱投资。当80后开始成家立业、一咬牙考虑买房时，房产限购政策的改革让他们连房奴都当不成，沦为城市里“无根”的一族。前后这么一折腾，大部分80给弄得没了心气儿。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">6. </span><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">社保改革炮灰</span></span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">而当80后好不容易找到工作、立足未稳，国家却又搞起了社会保障改革和退休制度改革，80后又成为了首批必须缴纳社保到65岁的职场新人。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">7. </span>一家养四老</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">80后的父母是各代人里面最穷逼，并且相当大基数需要依靠子女防老的，而80后刚好都是独生子女，普遍会面对着“一家赡养两对老人，拖垮一个中产家庭”的悲惨未来。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">一家养四老，中产变温饱</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> PS：经过读者鼓励，DrBing已改行做段子狗</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 好了，通过上面的数据，我们明白了一个道理：</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><em style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">生对年代很重要。</span></strong></em></span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> PS：投对娘胎当然更重要</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> </font></span></p><section data-id="120" class="e7editor" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section class="e7wei" data-id="85802" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-width="50%" style="margin-top: 2em; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 240px; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); color: rgb(166, 166, 166);"><section style="margin-top: -1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; line-height: 1em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="padding: 4px 8px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(172, 29, 16); height: 18px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(172, 29, 16) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">展 望</font></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 然并卵。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 还是讨论一下有用的：我们孩子这代的结构性趋势是怎样的呢？这又是环环相扣的。那就还是要从这几点说：</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">父母教育优势</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 80后经历大面积扩招，有更高的文化水平和接触新思想新技术的能力。同时作为网民主力部队，信息获得能力强，这是这代家长最大的优势。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 去年我参加过<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">台湾</span></strong>一名资深中小学教育培训大咖的讲座，他说道，<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">从十多年前台湾孩子的人人参加课后培训到今天培训产业的萎缩到当年的1/3，主要原因就是<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">家长知识水平的提高，很多的启蒙和辅导工作都转由家长代劳</strong>；其次，<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">社会发展到人人都能上大学，上了也等于没上，就不再是千军万马过独木桥的景观，<span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;">应试</span>课外培训在人们视野中变淡</strong>。<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;">中国也会顺应这个趋势</span></strong>。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 和出版行业的同僚接触，近5年来中国的早期亲子阅读市场以每年100%-200%的速度增长，和众多培训机构的”倒闭门“、”跑路门“也反应着这个趋势。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 需要考虑性价比的普通家庭，<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">如果在孩子培养方面首先想到的是机构，可能要反思下是思维惯性在作祟呢，还是对自己学习能力不够自信呢。作为土豪，各大豪华机构甚至是私教，仍然是教育培训的首选。普通机构，大有沦为鸡肋的趋势，性价比严重不足。</span></strong></span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">教育系统和经济结构趋势</span></strong></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">如果说80后经历的学生时代是应试教育的顶峰，那么80后子女这代，面临的就是<strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">教育回归理性</strong>。</span>我们已经在从大城市中小学的减负和教改中看到这个明显的信号。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 看中国最近几十年的发展轨迹，几次改革和高考出题的画风改变趋势（<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">支持民办，灵活化，多元化，脱离应试，回归能力</span>），就是向世界的状态靠近的趋势，也就是西方模式。中国在经济、社会方面的改革都和西方模式逐步接近的前提下，唯独教育和西方不同是不可能的。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 西方模式是怎样呢？“<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">快乐教育</span>”、“<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">个性教育</span>”本质就是，<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">在基础教育阶段就进行分水<span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">：</span>职业教育和高等教育的分水岭</span>。不是读书料的，就快快乐乐当个蓝领好了。之前有篇爆文叫《<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); box-sizing: border-box !important;">没钱就别搀和减负了</span>》，表达的意思很痛心：<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); box-sizing: border-box !important;">来自寒门又不是读书料的孩子在“减负”中，会被有钱垄断高等教育资源的，或者有读书资质的孩子，甩出几条大街。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 减负的本质其实就是分水：如果要从积极的角度看待它，千军万马过独木桥的80后，不是念书料的那部分人，整个童年都因高考被毁，读完个二流三流本科，最后干的还不是蓝领的活儿吗，拿着技工的工资吗？这么一看，减负似乎又真的没什么不好——起码没被考试逼成变态。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 但是这种早期分水的问题在哪里呢？欧美的经济结构和相对稳定的经济，允许有许多“幸福的蓝领”过着“快乐的普通人”的生活。但中国未来几十年社会经济走向有很大的不确定性：会“软着陆”还是“硬着陆“目前还说不准。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 处于一个国家知识结构顶层的精英，选择多，抗风险能力大。蓝领技工面对产业结构性变化的时候，抗风险能力较低。众所周知：中国的经济结构，根本没法消化那么多速食”大学生“。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 不巧的是，我们刚好正处于一个信息技术第二波革命的时代，很多行业都可能在一夜之间被革命。而那些搭上全副身家混了个二三流甚至野鸡大学出来，自己也没有真实生存能力的本科生，前途并不比蓝领们乐观。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 所以面对这个趋势，给家长的建议当然是：</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 如果你是土豪，孩子资质不差，那么当然最稳妥的就是让他成为顶级知识精英，因为只要资质合格，<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">精英值就是家长砸的钱</span></strong></span>。这条铁律两千年来从未改变。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 普通和底层家庭，要观察孩子是不是读书的料，和认真地发掘孩子的<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 82, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">生存特长</span></strong></span>。生存特长不是什么钢琴画画跳舞这些华丽花哨的东西，是例如口才，观察力，创造力创新力，沟通力，情商，社交，财商....<span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;">为什么我们都偏向钢琴画画跳舞这些才艺？因为</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">1）他们是学校比赛项，用来刷存在感的，但现在学校比赛类型已经越来越多，刷存在感的方式其实不仅限于传统项了。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(64, 118, 0); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">2）家长往往用孩子来填补自己孩提时的才艺奢望。所以家长请是把眼界放开。</span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 如果孩子不是读书的料，不如放弃鸡肋的野鸡大学高等教育，寻找“另一条路”，这时他的生存特长，才是他抗风险的唯一资本。而现在在一个充分竞争的商业社会，在一个不会埋没任何一个天才的互联网时代，出头的机会比以前多太多了。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> <span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); box-sizing: border-box !important;">总体来说：高等教育必然还是（永远都是）社会晋级选择和分层机制，但已经<span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">不值得家境、资质都不允许的孩子全家背水一战、奋力一搏。</span></span></font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 关于教育和购物原理一样：有钱的玩档次，没钱的讲实用。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> </font></span></p><section data-id="120" class="e7editor" style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section class="e7wei" data-id="85802" style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><section data-width="50%" style="margin-top: 2em; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; padding-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0.5em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; width: 240px; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); color: rgb(166, 166, 166);"><section style="margin-top: -1em; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; line-height: 1em;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="padding: 4px 8px; max-width: 100%; color: rgb(172, 29, 16); height: 18px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(172, 29, 16) rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">总 结</font></span></strong></span></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%; width: 0px; height: 0px; clear: both; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 10-20年后，我们这些80后家庭中长成年的孩子面对的就是一个和今天的西方社会一样的未来。如果中国经济软着陆，就会有一批有社会责任感的上层精英和一群幸福的普通人，过着各自心目中的理想日子。如果中国经济“硬着陆”，那就是一群拿着绿卡裸在中国吸金的强盗精英，和一群比现在的80后更迷茫，更苦逼的一代，进入下一个循环的<span style="max-width: 100%; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important;">结构性苦逼</span>。</font></span></p><p style="padding-top: 26px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); border: 0px; line-height: 26px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"> 我们都不希望未来是后者。</font></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;"></font></p><blockquote style="padding-left: 10px; max-width: 100%; border-left-width: 3px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(219, 219, 219); color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">来源：新新家长 微信公众号：xinxinjiazhang</font></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; white-space: pre-wrap; box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 26px; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><font face="微软雅黑" size="3">作者：英华兰，新新家长“英华兰的DrBing”专栏作者，来自德国的儿童教育学博士，儿童语言习得探索者。</font></span></p></blockquote></div>
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